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加拿大国营按揭保险公司狠批加国银行放贷“不负责任”
CMHC targets banks for 'cavalier’ approach to mortgage lending





《环球邮报》5月26日发表的一篇文章称,为加国房主提供$4480亿元房贷保险的加拿大按揭及房屋公司(CMHC)行政总裁西德尔(Evan Siddall) 指责加国大银行从事被他称之为不负责任的放贷行为,从而助长了高杠杆的住宅房地产市场。
 
身为CMHC行政总裁的西德尔很重要,在去年,他掌管的这家国有企业通过强化房贷保险帮助12.3万人购了房。但是,西德尔仍是公务员。在通常情况下,政府官员都不会狠批本国大银行的高管。CMHC的行政总裁肯定是错过了相关的备忘录。
 
上周,西德尔对多伦多道明银行(Toronto-Dominion Bank)及加拿大帝国商业银行(Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce)的经济学家进行了点名批评,并指责这些大银行受一己之利驱使,意欲放松联邦监管机构近年来为了给房市降温而推出的房贷压力测试。西德尔提出的尖锐批评出现在CMHC发给众议院财政委员会的一封公开信中,在这封信中,CMHC对加国的现状表达了严重担忧。



联邦政府在2018年推出的压力测试新规要求首付超过房价20%不需要房贷保险的买家亦必须接受压力测试,以证明自己在贷款利率上调至加拿大央行的牌告五年期房贷利率水平,或比合同利率高出2个百分点时仍有偿贷能力。此外,首付低于房价20%有房贷保险的买家也必须证明自己有能力承受与加拿大央行的牌告五年期房贷利率水平相当的贷款利率,或是借贷机构提供的合同利率(无需加两个百分点)。在压力测试新规执行后,2018年加国的房屋销售量大幅下滑,特别是热点城市温哥华和多伦多的房屋销售量跌幅尤为明显,在2019年第一季度这种情况仍未有转变。而随着2019年大选日益临近,政客们很可能会在自己的竞选政纲中提出放宽房贷标准,因为他们很想赢得首次购房者的支持,这是一个很重要的选民群体,他们目前正为越来越难以获得房贷而感到烦恼。

但是,CMHC的数据显示加国人士仍在继续背负过多债务,从而使得加拿大面临经济放缓的风险。CMHC上周公布的报告称,由于房贷持有人同时还继续承担非房贷债务,去年第四季度加拿大人的债务与收入比率创下178.5%的历史新高。CMHC表示,加国人士平均每月所需还款额与去年同期相比增长了4.5%,而可支配收入仅增长了2.5%。西德尔并不认同之前针对包括2008年全球金融危机在内的经济衰退期所做的一些研究结果,他称,高房价加上高债务,将会不可避免地导致未来的经济增长受到影响。


 
西德尔的话听起来就像是他在写发给众议院财政委员会的公开信时,他的电视里正在播放《权利的游戏》(Game of Thrones),并且他牢牢记住了剧中史塔克家族的箴言——凛冬将至。联邦保守党党领谢尔(Andrew Scheer)也在敲着一样的边鼓,他在最近发表的一次讲话中警告称,联邦自由党在经济向好时大手大脚,而一旦GDP(国内生产总值)增长放缓,需要采取经济刺激措施,现在的赤字开支就会导致联邦政府陷入困境。
 
西德尔非常明确地指出,房贷压力测试已被证明是非常出色的公共政策。西德尔承认,更为严格的贷款要求会使得一些潜在买家更难从银行获得贷款。但是,CMHC和联邦政府都希望通过控制过度借贷为尽可能多的加国人士提供可负担的住房,因为过度借贷只会推高房价。西德尔称,自联邦政府从2010年开始改变压力测试要求以来,已经帮助将加国的全国房价降低了3.4%。
 
接着,西德尔将矛头指向了竭力推销房贷,并且支持高风险贷款的加国银行。西德尔称,他在回顾这些银行近来发表的报告后,惊讶地发现道明银行的经济学家主张取消压力测试,以便能让房价上涨$32,000元。此外,加拿大帝国商业银行的经济学家也呼吁重新评估现行的压力测试。

西德尔称,鉴于联邦政府为这些贷款人的投保房贷提供担保,这种做法似乎明显存在道德风险,他不知道如果这些风险是由银行自己扛,他们是不是还会这么不负责任。


 
有些人可能并不清楚“道德风险”的概念,换句话说,也就是西德尔说的是道明银行和加拿大帝国商业银行的经济学家都建议采取高风险行动方针,因为银行家们知道他们行动的后果是由CMHC承担。值得注意的是,西德尔并非一直从事公务员工作,在加入CMHC之前,他曾担任过高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)的高管。
 
巧合的是,在西德尔炮轰加拿大大银行的同时,道明银行、加拿大帝国商业银行和加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)都公布了自己的财务报告。在各家银行通过分析师发出呼声后,银行高管们也因为各自银行按揭投资组合的表现而面临质疑,这些投资组合对多伦多和温哥华等大城市的影响尤其大,因为这些地区的房价已经一飞冲天。在这些银行中,没有一家对CMHC重点关注的消费者债务水平持续上升感到担忧,他们都声称不用担心,一切尽在掌握中。

值得赞扬的是,这三家银行所报告的国内贷款损失率都极低。并且各家银行的高层均表示,他们知道本国住宅市场有很多泡沫。但是,这三家银行都坚称,他们有适当的体系筛选房贷申请,可以在拒绝潜在赖账者的同时向有信誉的购房者提供房贷。当然,这些体系还从未经历过住宅房地产市场严重衰退的考验。
 
在这些银行家中,没有人认同《权利的游戏》中的箴言,他们似乎并不相信房贷市场凛冬将至,或至少他们现在仍能高枕无忧,因为他们知道CMHC乃至纳税人正在承担住房市场走低带来的风险。



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