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中美贸易战决战在金融?





9月1日,美中双方向对方加征关税。美中贸易战随着双方不断加征关税,正使得双方的经济关系愈发走向脱钩,但贸易战的决战场所却可能转移到金融。一旦真的脱钩,中方的损失难以想象,而美方自然也得不到什么好处。其实中方手里有一张重牌,就是中国所拥有的1.113万亿美元债券。自贸易战以来,中国正持续减持美债(很少有增持的月份),去年9月减持137亿;今年3月减持104亿;今年6月比5月又多减了75亿。尽管如此,中方却对美债的处置始终低调谨慎,为了取得与美贸易战的缓和及订立协议,从不轻易亮剑以刺激老美。

虽然贸易战开始至今的一年多来,一直是老美在采取主动攻势,反复加征关税和打压中国如华为等重要企业。可中方非但没有屈服,反而相向反征税,摆出一副硬抗的姿态。其实老美清楚,一旦双方硬撞脱钩,中方可能发展缓滞甚至要过紧日子,但老美自己也捞不到什么好处,最要命的是一旦双方彻底翻脸,中方即便出于安全考量也会猛抛美债,那美国势必将处于金融和经济的蹦盘趋势。美国的这种担忧,其实一直存在。



前几天有媒体报,美国债券持有人基金会ABF 共同创办人必昂科(Jonna Bianco)提出:美国人持有的前清政府所发行的“湖广债券”本金加高息(五厘)1百多年的复息滚动,约达1.5兆美元超过现在中国所持美债的1兆多美元。川普虽未对此正式表态,但美方借由以舆论挑破或造势,这似乎有对中国所持美债之赖债的不祥兆头。从法理上讲,前朝政府的债务理应由后继政府继承,而清朝的后继者中华民国政府至今仍然法理存在,美方应该与台湾交涉才对,此债与北京还形成不了三角债的关系。再者,二战时形成反法西斯同盟国的谈判,西方列国取消了与前清所订立的所有不平等条约(脱殖民地帽子,此乃蒋中正不可磨灭的功绩),虽然不够彻底的遗留香港问题(上世纪97年也最终解决),但诸如湖广债券之类债务等事项,当时列国与国民政府在废旧约结新盟的谈判中理应有涉及。对此,台湾方面当有相应的档案资料表述,或以前清的破产作为免责应对。据说,中方曾因湖广债券在美有过两次司法交涉,结果中方赢。

老美对中国持有的巨额美国国债,一向犹心仲仲。前国务卿希拉里在参议员任上时,曾对在国会作证的美联储主席格林斯潘问,如何应对所欠中国的巨额国债,格林斯潘的回答令希拉里等人震惊:这钱其实不用还,中国人非但不会要兑债、反而会继续增持收益良好的美债。在双方关系平顺时期,老美就用成本低廉印制的美钞换取了中国的实物和劳动,当然中方也解决了大量就业压力、以及获取有限的但远比老美低的利润,且这种利润相当部分还以债券方式存留在美国(老美的两伊战争军费就一定含有此款),不过中方在资源消耗和环境损害上也代价不小。



当双方关系良好时,这种“同舟共济”各取所需的状态能够维持。但毕竟难以永久持续。中国的出口导向型经济结构,相当程度捆绑在美国的主动采购意愿及关税限制上,自主性和弹性不足。随着中国所持有的巨额美债和对美贸易出超不断增加,对美国金融及经济的影响作用也日益增加,某种程度上像一颗不定时的炸弹。这场贸易战并非是川普的心血来潮,即便明年川普连任失败,也会有别人来持续这场贸易战。随着中国的经济体量和科技水平不断增强,特别是与一些国家在能源供应如伊朗俄国等以人民币结算,以及与其它国家在贸易和工程技术上以人民币结算,这就大大地挑战了美元的霸权地位。虽然人民币的国际流通及替代美元还很遥远,但撼动美元地位的前期姿态,却是老美万不能容忍的。压制中国最显而易见的做法,就是从扭转中方在两国贸易的持续巨额出超上入手,川普傲慢的征税和反复无常的施压手法,以正欲崛起赶超老美的中方,当然不甘以世界老二之尊受辱。反弹是必然的,但解决过分依赖出口的经济结构问题,也已迫在眉睫,即使川普此刻不发动贸易战,中方也会力图转变和调节出口导向型经济,以及改变产品和技术的出口组分和类型。所以对于美中经济的暂时脱钩,中方并非完全不能承受。



尽管中方未能轻启金融战,而老美事实上也很忌惮金融战作为美中贸易战的决战场所,因为成则赚了一大把(但毕竟并不能把中国怎么样),败则可能失去美元霸权地位,从此滑下世界老大的位置,这是老美不可承受之重。故现阶段双方除了会有有限碰撞,但还是会寻求妥协之道,中方是力量有限不能下最后摊牌的决心,老美方也并非是川普在顾忌总统连任,而是美国资本集团尚不能放任川普太随心所欲。



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