孟晚舟本月底能返中国？

从两个迈克尔在中国遭监禁，到中国禁止加国菜籽油进口，加拿大在拘留了华为高管孟晚舟后一直面临着来自中国的种种报复行为。很多人将希望寄托于孟晚舟1月20日的引渡听证会，希望这一法律程序能挽救僵局，缓解紧张的中加关系。有人说：“如果一切顺利，孟晚舟在本月底就可以被释放并返回中国”。

From the arrest of the two Michaels to the canola oil ban, Canada has faced far-reaching repercussions from China after it detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou. Many are eager for a resolution through Meng’s extradition hearing on Jan. 20, hoping the court process will bring relief. "If things go well, Meng can be released and go back to China by the end of the month," they say.

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果真如此吗？据《环邮》报道，此次孟晚舟的引渡听证将着眼于“双重犯罪”的法律原则，既美国当局对她的指控是否在加国也构成犯罪行为。据加拿大的《引渡法》， 如果某人的行为在加国不能定罪，加国则不能将其引渡到它国接受惩罚。

Can she? Meng's hearing will focus on the test of dual criminality, or whether the allegations by US authorities she is facing would also be a crime in Canada, according to the Globe. Under Canada's extradition act, Canada should not extradite a person to face punishment in another county for conduct that would not be considered criminal in Canada.

美国当局指控，孟晚舟在其向美国汇丰银行做的汇报演示中，将华为与其下属机构，既在伊朗运作的星通技术之间的真实关系瞒天过海。但孟晚舟的律师表示，根据加国法律，如果孟被控的欺骗行为发生在加拿大则不构成银行和电汇欺诈。“虽然美国当局试图将违反禁运的指控说成是欺诈，加拿大可没有实施对伊朗的禁运制裁令。”

The US authorities allege that in a PowerPoint presentation given to HSBC bank, Meng misrepresented Huawei's relationship with its subsidiary Skycom operating in Iran. But Meng's lawyers argue that assuming Meng's conduct had taken place in Canada, it would not constitute the alleged bank and wire fraud under Canadian law. "While the US seeks to dress up sanction-breaking-complaint as a case of fraud, Canada has no such sanctions against Iran," argues Meng's defense team.



加拿大早期的确对伊朗进行过经济制裁，但2016年将大部分制裁措施取消。2018年美国总统川普恢复了对伊朗的全面贸易制裁措施。川普上周宣布美国将对伊朗进行更为严厉的制裁措施。

Canada previously imposed economic sanctions against Iran but repealed most of them in 2016. In 2018, the US president Trump reinstated comprehensive trade sanctions against Iran.  Trump announced the US would impose more powerful sanctions on Iran last week.

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虽然孟的这一辩护词对某些引渡律师来说并非毫不在理或遥不可及，但加国司法部则会在法庭上对这一说辞进行有力还击。司法部的律师们已经将辩护律师的言辞称为“胡搅蛮缠”。

While the defense arguments do not appear "frivolous and longshots" for some extradition lawyers, they will face fierce opposition from Canada's attorney general in court. The lawyer for Attorney General has already called the defense statements a complete red herring.



除非法庭认定美国提出的指控完全主要着眼于违反伊朗制裁的问题而欺诈行为并非重点，那么法庭就不会即刻认定该案不能满足双重欺诈的法律原则，而孟晚舟就必须继续呆在加拿大继续接受引渡听审。

Unless the court finds the US allegations focused on violating sanctions against Iran and not fraud, the case would not immediately fail the dual criminality test, and Meng must remain in Canada to face the continued extradition proceedings against her.

在对双方证词和法律案例进行思量和权衡后，如果副首席大法官Heather Holmes认定孟的行为不满足双重犯罪条件，那么孟晚舟还有其他可能被立即释放，其中之一就是司法部长的直接下令。

If Associate Chief Justice Heather Holmes decides the double criminality test has not been met, after weighing evidence and case law, Meng may still have some other options to seek an immediate release. One of them would be the intervention from the Justice Minister.



虽然司法部长有权随时终止引渡案件的听审，但加国的前司法部长们从来没有行使过这一权力。在兰万灵案件中以维护司法独立而著称的王洲迪从来没有使用过这一权力，当前的司法部长David Lametti也不会这么做。对加国司法部长来说，那些曾因试图政治干预兰万灵案件而惹了一身骚的政客们就是他的前车之鉴，因此下令终止孟晚舟案件听审岂不是太冒险的举动！

While a justice minister can legally halt the case at any time, the ministers, in practice, have not used that power. Jody Wilson Raybould, the former Justice Minister who emerged from the SNC saga as a hero for standing up for the rule of law, did not use it, and David Lametti, the current justice minister, would not either. Given the punishment political leaders faced by trying to politically intervene on the judiciary process of the SNC Lava line case, ordering to halt Meng's extradition process is a particularly risky move for the justice minister.

虽然引渡律师Gary Botting认为孟晚舟面对的双重犯罪问题就像黑纸白字，一目了然，其他法律专家却认为孟晚舟到底能有多大胜算却难估料。但据《环邮》编辑部的预测，孟晚舟一年后仍在加拿大的可能性高达68%，因此孟晚舟在本月底还呆在温哥华的概率就会远远高于68%！

While extradition lawyer Gary Botting describes the dual criminality issue as an "open and shut" case for Meng, other legal experts said it was difficult to give an educated guess at Meng's chance of success. But based on the recent prediction by the Globe editorial board that the odds of Meng remains in Canada one year later is 68 percent, the chances that she would not return to China by the end of the month are much higher.