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疫情并非造成中国股市下跌的唯一因素





(大中报/096.ca讯):根据华尔街日报的报道,中国股市在鼠年首个交易日2月3日创下2015年以来最大单日跌幅,上证综指周一一度大跌8%。除非中国政府采取更强有力的措施提振市场人气,否则股市可能还会进一步走低。

好消息是,周一如此巨大的下跌很大程度上是中国股市结束春节假期重新开市后的补跌。中国股市自1月23日起因农历新年假日休市。香港股市已经于上周三重新开市,上周下跌约6%。

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坏消息是,即使不再次出现象周一那么大的单日跌幅,市场可能仍没有触底。一个原因是,去年全年中国股市上涨22%,在新型冠状病毒疫情开始蔓延前就已经面临回调风险。

股票本该反映企业未来的利润情况,但中国股市素来有过早炒作的名声。这一点在2015年初最为明显,当时超宽松的货币政策未能重振实体经济,却成功地吹大了股市泡沫。当监管部门2015年年中收紧融资融券规定时,股市崩盘了。从2014年末到2015年6月,上证综指上涨了一倍,随后在短短两个月里几乎回吐了所有涨幅。

这一次有些明显的不同。首先,货币政策的宽松程度远不及2015年初,并且市场的涨幅也远不像当时那样大。去年年底短期借贷利率的确呈现下行趋势,但与2015年初的下降幅度相差甚远,当时基准的7天期银行间回购利率在大约两个月的时间里从接近5%降至不到2%。数据供应商Wind的信息显示,近来融资融券规模也小幅增加,但仅为2015年泡沫最严重时的一半左右。

但不幸的是,现在与2015年的情形也有一些相似之处。在新型冠状病毒疫情升级之前,中国经济增速出现了一些真正的企稳迹象,出口商和汽车行业站稳脚跟。不过,整体的名义经济增速和信贷增速仍呈现横向或下行趋势,这两个指标与企业利润增速呈现高度的正相关性。从这个角度看去年底中国股市的大幅走高似乎值得怀疑。Wind数据显示,去年第三季度企业利润同比增速反弹至8%左右,远低于上证综指的同比涨幅。

现在一些泡沫被挤了出来。但此次疫情以及为遏制疫情而采取的隔离措施对经济增长的冲击尚未反映在经济及利润数据中。除非中国政府大举加码救市力度,否则中国股市未来的日子可能仍不好过。

另据报道,2月4日周二,亚洲股市早盘上涨,中国股市在周一暴跌后也转为上涨。




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