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经济学家:2020年多伦多房价已开始疯狂,"这不是好征兆"





(大中报/096.ca讯):根据多伦多房地产局(Toronto Real Estate Board)的统计,1月份的地产数据体现了自2017年10月以来的最大单月价格涨幅,平均房价同比上涨了12.3%,同时,新上市的房屋数量比去年下降了17.1%。

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根据TD Economics一份最新的报告指出,多伦多房地产市场正在以类似2016年的速度上涨。最后的结果将导致政府出台一系列的监管措施,校正市场归回正规。

报告指出,“目前,高企的房价让购房者的压力达到自2017年以来之最高。而且,因为独立屋的价格让人难以承受,导致初次购房者纷纷转向公寓,造成近年来强劲的价格上涨,越来越多人已无法实现屋主的梦想。”

根据国家邮报的报道,道明银行的经济学家桑迪(Rishi Sondhi)在2月11日周二发布的报告中说:“现在的房价涨势很像压力测试政策出台之前,加拿大央行加息以及安省公平住房计划实行之前的那段时期。”

RBC Economics也发布了一份类似报告指出,多伦多房地产市场正在以疯狂的速度增长,已近2016年的高额涨幅,最终的结果就是政府出手干预,实行一系列的监管措施来遏制狂热的市场。

加拿大皇家银行资深经纪学家霍格(Robert Hogue)认为,“现在的状况看上去就像2016年初的样子,这真不是个好兆头”。

 

霍格认为,SNLR(Sales-To-New Listings Ratio)这个销量和挂牌量比率数据,是衡量房屋市场需求程度的可靠指标。1月份这个数据攀升至70%以上,为近期房价上涨提供了依据。

SNLR(Sales-To-New Listings Ratio)是加拿大地产协会用来确定买房或卖方市场的指标。当SNLR的值为50%时,市场是完美的均衡市场,买卖双方供求平衡,通常介于40%到60%之间时,市场就会被认为是平衡的,房产会在合理的时间内以公平的价格成交;当SNLR大于60%时,我们称为卖方市场。

TD Economics的分析表明,去年全国范围内新上市的房屋熟料远远落后于销量。桑迪指出,“这并不是一个新问题,近几年来,房屋一直是供不应求。而且,这种情况在2020年不会有任何的改观。”

桑迪预测,在大多伦多地区,由于需求增加和供应受限的双重影响,房价增长将从2019年的4%加速到今年的8%。 他写道:“重要的是,独立屋的价格经过2018年的回调后开始提速上升,而公寓市场的势态仍然强劲。”

1月份,多伦多独立屋的平均售价为103万8247元,同比高涨了10.5%;公寓涨幅更大,价格同比上涨15%,达到63万。霍格表示,如果房屋库存保持不变,未来几个月多伦多的房价可能会以两位数的许多飙升。



通常来说,现有住房和新房的供应是影响房地产市场下一步走向的关键。如果多伦多的房屋供应保持在低水平,价格将在未来几个月继续上涨。更糟糕的是,如果供应进一步减少,价格可能会像2016年和2017年初那样螺旋上升。

加拿大央行行长波洛兹(Stephen Poloz)最近暗示,鉴于过去几个月加拿大各地经济数据不断走低,央行将对降息持开放态度。如果借贷增加,低利率可能会进一步推动房地产市场的繁荣。

五大银行已经开始降低抵押贷款利率。1月29日,加拿大皇家银行率先将其五年固定抵押贷款利率从3.24%降至3.09%,这是该银行自2019年8月以来首次降低利率;多伦多道明银行紧随其后,也宣布降低5年固定利率。

霍格在他的报告中警告说,市场目前最不需要的就是任何可能进一步收紧政策的举措,无论是通过限制供应,还是刺激需求。大温哥华地区的房价也在攀升(尽管增速有所放缓),部分原因是库存下降,行业观察家认为,这种状况将持续到2020的下半年。

先前有报道说,多伦多“抢offer”现象明显多了起来。有一套房子竟然有33名买家同时出价,而在皮尔区的宾顿市,一栋很不起眼的两层独立屋,竟然吸引了77名买家!朋友圈卖房的经纪也发出感叹,今年的房地产太火了,回到了3年前的疯狂。一个3卧室的小小独立屋,还没到正式收offer的时间,竟然已有11个offer进来排队了。

与此同时,渥太华和蒙特利尔的上市房屋数量及其短缺,为这两个城市的房价上涨创造了条件。




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