通胀降至2.5%：加国经济软着陆，财务结局胜于历史（观点）

加拿大的通货膨胀率呈显著下降，从2022年6月的高峰8.1%降至2024年7月的2.5%。这一喜讯凸显了政策决策者所起的举足轻重的作用，也让为之惨重付出的加拿大人长长地松了一口气。在经历了持续不断的加息和财务重压后，加拿大人终于可以感受到经济环境稳定的优势。随着通胀终于得到控制，央行开始降低利率，飙升的物价负担正在减轻，为加国家庭带来了更为乐观的财务前景和更健康的国家经济。

Inflation in Canada has seen a dramatic decline, falling from a peak of 8.1% in June 2022 to 2.5% in July 2024. This significant reduction marks a major victory for policymakers and brings a long-awaited sigh of relief for Canadians. After enduring relentless rate hikes and financial strain, Canadians are now beginning to see signs of economic stability. With inflation finally under control and interest rates poised to decrease, the burden of soaring prices is lifting, giving households across the country a more hopeful outlook for healthier family budgets and a more robust economy.

然而，取得今天的这一成果加拿大是付出了巨大代价的。在加拿大央行（BoC）全力以赴对抗通胀之际，数百万的加国老百姓承受了巨大的财务压力。对于央行来说，将通胀率恢复到2%的目标不仅仅是一个政策目标——它是确保经济稳定和维护公众对货币信心的绝对必要措施。通胀率持高不下的时间越长，公众对通胀不良预期就越根深蒂固，日后控制通胀的挑战就越大。

However, the journey to this point has come at a considerable cost, with millions having endured immense financial strain as the Bank of Canada (BoC) waged an all-out war against rising prices. For the BoC, bringing inflation back to the 2% target was not just a policy goal—it was a necessity to ensure economic stability and maintain public trust in the currency. The longer inflation remained high, the more entrenched inflationary expectations could become, making it even harder to control in the future.

在20世纪70年代末和80年代初，加拿大曾面临高通胀，通胀率在1981年已达到了12-13%之高。其实，在全球石油危机和工资价格螺旋上升的推动下，通胀压力已经积累了近十年。由于当时缺乏今天明确的通胀控制目标，加拿大央行（BoC）未能及时采取果断行动，导致通胀在加国经济中成为顽固不化的因素。当央行最终采取行动，大幅提高了利率时，1981年基准利率竟达到了21.75%的加国历史峰值。虽然采取这一极端措施在控制通胀是必要的，但给加国经济造成可怕的创伤，导致房产主大量失去房产，出现大面积失业以及经济深度衰退。这一历史教训凸显了及时控制通胀的重要性。

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Canada faced high inflation, peaking at 12-13% in 1981. This inflationary pressure had been building for nearly a decade, fueled by global oil shocks and wage-price spirals. The Bank of Canada, without the clear inflation-targeting tools of today, was slow to take decisive action, allowing inflation to become deeply entrenched. When the BoC finally acted, it raised interest rates dramatically, with the prime rate reaching 21.75% in 1981 –the highest in Canadian history. While this extreme measure was necessary to control inflation, it led to skyrocketing home foreclosures, widespread job losses, and a deep recession, underscoring the importance of timely monetary policy.

加拿大央行从这一深重的经济痛苦时代中吸取了深刻教训：任由通胀失控会带来严重而广泛的后果。为了避免重蹈历史覆辙，央行发起了一场激进的货币紧缩行动，在短时间内将从接近零的利率提高到5%。借贷成本的急剧上升对加拿大人造成了沉重打击，尤其是那些持有浮动利率按揭的房主，使他们的月供大幅增加。由于房东将更高的融资成本转嫁给房客，房客租金也急剧上升。此外，信贷成本的上升使加拿大人管理债务的成本增加，给家庭预算带领极大负担，并加剧了加国人士的财务焦虑。

The BoC took a hard lesson from this era of deep economic pain: allowing inflation to spiral out of control came with severe and widespread consequences. To avoid repeating the past, the BoC launched an aggressive monetary tightening campaign, raising interest rates from near-zero to 5% within a short period. This sharp increase in borrowing costs hit Canadians hard, especially those with variable-rate mortgages, who saw their monthly payments surge. Renters also felt the impact as landlords passed on higher financing costs. Additionally, the cost of credit rose, making it more expensive for Canadians to manage debt, which squeezed household budgets and heightened financial anxiety across the country.

然而，尽管面临这些挑战，加拿大央行迅速而激进的措施有效地阻止了最恐怖的经济噩梦。与当时许多加拿大人失去了房屋，大量失业，以及经济陷入了深度衰退的1980年代不同，这一次控制通胀中房屋止赎数量保持稳定，经济也避免了硬着陆。加国人士应感到幸运和感恩，尽管这场抗通胀之战打的痛苦，但其最终结局要远远好于以往之战，毕竟很多家庭幸免于最险恶的财务灾难。

However, despite these challenges, the BoC's swift and aggressive measures helped prevent the worst outcomes. Unlike in the 1980s, when many Canadians lost their homes and the economy plunged into a deep recession, this time, home foreclosures have remained stable, and the economy has avoided a hard landing. Canadians should feel fortunate and grateful that, although this inflation battle has been tough, the impact has been far less severe than in the past, sparing many from the worst economic hardships.

最终，加拿大央行迅速而果断的加息在应对通胀的迫切威胁中发挥了至关重要的作用。尽管利率的快速上升给许多加拿大人带来了短期的痛苦，但这是防止失控通胀带来严重后果的必要措施。目前，随着通胀趋于稳定，加拿大人可以期待未来几年利率的逐步下降，从而实现可持续的增长和财务安全。今天所经历的痛苦和牺牲有利于确保一个更加稳定和繁荣的未来。

In the end, the Bank of Canada’s quick and decisive rate hikes were essential in tackling the immediate threat of inflation. While the rapid increase in interest rates brought short-term pain for many Canadians, it was a necessary step to prevent the severe consequences of unchecked inflation. Now, as inflation stabilizes, Canadians can expect a gradual easing of rates in the coming years, leading to sustainable growth and financial security. The sacrifices made today will ensure a more stable and prosperous future.