央行有效对付通胀 加国房产主受益（观点）

随着通胀大幅下降至1.6%，加拿大近几年来对抗通胀的斗争中取得了又一场胜利。然而，这并不是加拿大第一次面对通胀的威胁。上世纪80年代，加拿大经历了历史上最痛苦的与通胀的搏斗，通胀率在1981年达到了12-13%的峰值。虽然加拿大央行（BoC）在1970年代开始提高利率，但其反应较为迟缓且力度不足，导致通胀在经济中根深蒂固。相比之下，这次加拿大央行采取了迅速而激进的措施，在2022年通胀达到8.1%的峰值时快速加息。随着通胀的逐步回落，更多的降息措施已在预期中。通过对比这两个通胀时期，可以看出央行这次更快的反应不但稳定了经济，更是让加国房产主深深地松了口气。

With inflation dropping significantly to 1.6%, Canada has claimed another victory against the inflation that was a central concern for the economy over the past few years. But this isn’t the first time the country has faced such soaring prices. The 1980s saw one of the most painful inflation battles in Canada’s history, with inflation peaking at 12-13% in 1981. Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) began raising interest rates in the 1970s, its response was slower and less aggressive, allowing inflation to become deeply entrenched. In contrast, this time around, the BoC responded swiftly and aggressively, with rapid rate hikes as inflation peaked at 8.1% in 2022. As inflation cools and more rate cuts are now on the horizon, the comparison between these two inflationary episodes highlights how the BoC’s quicker response today has helped stabilize the economy, particularly for Canadian homeowners.

在1980年代初期，加拿大央行面临着严峻的通胀危机。为了应对通胀，央行在1981年将基准利率提高到了令人惊叹的21.75%，导致许多房主，尤其是那些持有浮动利率按揭贷款者，面临急剧上升的按揭付款。此次通胀造成了巨大的经济损失。房屋拥有率大幅滑坡，中等收入家庭受到重创。许多加拿大人面对停滞的工资增长和上升的失业率，以至因付不起银行贷款而不得不放弃房产，foreclosure 浪潮此起彼伏。到1983年，全国的止赎率飙升至0.7%，是通常0.2-0.3%水平的两倍多。

In the early 1980s, the BoC faced a daunting inflation crisis. To combat inflation, the central bank raised the prime interest rate to an eye-watering 21.75% in 1981, leaving many homeowners—especially those with variable-rate mortgages—facing skyrocketing mortgage payments. The result was devastating. Homeownership rates dropped significantly, with middle-income families particularly hard hit. Many Canadians, already struggling with stagnant wage growth and rising unemployment, were forced to default on their homes, resulting in waves of foreclosures. By 1983, the national foreclosure rate had spiked to 0.7%, more than double the typical rate of 0.2-0.3%.

利率最终还是降了，但高利率一直持续至1980年代中期，届时加国房市已哀鸿遍野。 央行的降息决定的确让房产主们松了口气，但对于成千上万已经失去房屋拥有权的加拿大家庭来说为时已晚。这场经济创伤持续了多年，房市久久无法复苏。

Rate cuts did eventually come, but not until the mid-1980s. By then, the damage had been done. The BoC’s decision to slash rates brought some relief, but it was too late for the thousands of Canadian households that had already lost their homes. The housing market was slow to recover, and the economic scars lasted for years.

2024年的今天，尽管通胀再次飙升，在2022年中期达到了8.1%，但这一次加拿大央行采取了不同的应对措施，实施了更积极，主动和防范性的策略，在防止加拿大家庭的房屋拥有权丧失中起到举足轻重的作用。在这次通胀期间，房屋拥有率保持了更高的稳定性，全国的止赎率维持在0.3-0.4%左右，虽然略高于通常的0.2-0.3%范围，但远低于激增的1980年代。虽说许多持有浮动利率按揭的房主在利率飙升时面临了升高的财务压力，但即将到来的降息会稳定月供，缓解了加国家庭的经济困境，并避免了经济危机的到来。

Fast forward to 2024, and while inflation once again surged, reaching 8.1% in mid-2022, the BoC has acted differently this time around, using a more proactive and preemptive approach. This shift in strategy is crucial in protecting Canadian homeowners, as homeownership has remained much more stable in this inflation episode.  With the national foreclosure rate staying around 0.3-0.4%, slightly higher than the typical 0.2-0.3% range—it remains far more stable than the surge seen in the 1980s.. Many homeowners with variable-rate mortgages faced financial strain when rates spiked, but the upcoming rate cuts could help stabilize monthly payments, providing much-needed relief before economic hardship sets in.  

20世纪80年代对加拿大央行和政策制定者来说是一个惨痛的教训：缓慢和延迟的货币政策会对加国家庭和整体经济造成毁灭性影响。今天，加拿大央行迈出降息步伐以维持经济稳定，而正是历史上的失误才促成了今天更加谨慎，积极和果断的货币政策。尽管20世纪80年代和今天的通胀时期在许多方面不同，但如今更迅速地降息表明央行能让房产主尽快地从经济困境中摆脱出来。凭借更有效的通胀应对措施，加拿大房主即使在经济动荡时期，也可以对更稳定的财务未来充满信心。

The 1980s taught the BoC and Canadian policymakers a hard lesson: slow and delayed monetary responses can devastate households and the economy. Today, as the BoC prepares to cut rates to sustain economic stability, it’s clear that lessons from the past have informed a more cautious, balanced approach. While the inflationary episodes of the 1980s and today are different in many ways, the ability to cut rates more swiftly in today’s context shows how central banks can provide quicker relief to homeowners. With a proactive approach, Canadian homeowners can hope for a more stable financial future, even in uncertain times.