楼市到底有没有泡沫？

Buying frenzies, soaring prices and housing bubbles

加拿大抵押和房屋贷款保险公司上周举行记者会，公布了他们对加国房市的看法，即加拿大房市不存在泡沫。但Kevin Jia在目睹了其邻里街区的购房热以及极度飙升的房价后认为，房屋贷款保险公司的看法难以令人信服。

The CMHC held a press conference last week, sharing their belief with the public that there is no bubble in the Canadian housing market. However, witnessing buying frenzies that have driven the housing price in his neighbourhood through the roof, Kevin Jia casts a sceptical eye on the view of the mortgage insurance agency.

当我们一家人在大约13年前搬到北约克时，我的父母花了不到$50万元买下了我们现在的住房。此后我们全家一直在这套房屋里享受着舒适生活，但我从将它与电影里看到的百万豪宅相提并论。但是在上周，在我居住的有数栋挂着“Sold over Asking”售房牌的简朴的中产邻里,一套较小的房屋以$100万元的价格售出，不禁令我想起那些从飙涨房价中获利的人士。

When my family moved to North York most than 13 years ago, my parents bought our home for less than half a million. While we’ve lived comfortably well in this home, I’ve never considered it as a million dollar home you see in the movies. But last week, amid signs plastered with ‘Sold over Asking’ in my quaint middle-class neighborhood, a relatively small house was sold for $1 million. This has brought back memories of others who had profited from skyrocketing home valuations.

在2009年，我震惊地发现我家邻里街区的房价翻了近一倍。当同住一个社区的朋友以$80万元出售他们的房屋，随后又搬进Bayview Village的百万豪宅后，我确信房价将会下跌。但如今我却深感迷茫与困惑，因为在过去短短四年中房价又上涨了25%。

Back in 2009, I was shocked that the property value in my modest neighborhood had nearly doubled. When a family friend sold their home in our neighborhood for $800,000 and moved into a Bayview Village’s multimillion dollar home, I was sure prices would have to cool. But today, I’m perplexed and puzzled as to how prices could have risen again, by another 25% in just 4 years.

但是这种现象并非只是出现在我居住的约克社区，整个大多伦多地区的房价都在不断飙升。由于按揭利率处于历史低位，多伦多人都在雄心勃勃地从事他们的房地产事业。据《多伦多星报》报道，多伦多有一套房屋令人难以置信地吸引了70个报价，最终以超过百万元的价格售出，而这套房屋的面积还没有我家大。对于包括我在内的年轻一代来说，如果房价继续以当前的速度上涨，那在30岁之前购房似乎是不可能的事。

But the phenomenon isn’t just isolated to my quiet North York neighborhood. All across the GTA, homes prices are ballooning. With historically low Mortgage rates, Torontonians have been ambitious in their real estate endeavors. According to The Star, one Toronto home—which is even smaller than my own—sold for over a million, after receiving a mindboggling 70 bids. For the young generation, to which I’m a part of, buying a home before I’m 30 in Toronto seems impossible if prices continue to soar at their current rates.

尽管我心存担忧，但许多专家都认为楼市会在未来几年降温。上周，加拿大抵押和房屋贷款保险公司（CMHC）发表了春季市场展望报告。该发布会挤满了记者，甚至连主持了一小时记者会的CMHC高级分析师爱德华·汉斯都感到惊讶。CMHC坚持认为即便新屋动工量下降，加国的MLS房屋销量从19.35万套增至20.17万套，房价仍将以较慢的速度上涨，并会趋于稳定。

Despite my fears, many experts claim the market will cool in the next few years. Last week, the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation gave their Spring Market Outlook in a packed boardroom of media members—to which even surprisedEdward Heese, senior analyst for CMHC who gave an hour long press conference. The CMHC maintains that even in face of declining startups and increased MLS sales in Canada from 193,500 to 201,700, prices will grow at a slower rate and will stabilize.

汉斯称：“房价增长和收入增长之间的差距在逐渐缩小……我们预期新屋动工量将趋于稳定，到2015年时失业率将会降至只有6.6%。”

“There’s a decreasing gap between price growth and income growth,” said Heese. “We expect startups to stabilize as unemployment will fall to just 6.6% in 2015.”

但是多伦多似乎与CMHC对安省楼市的前景展望背道而驰。一份最新报告显示，多伦多的房屋销售量飙升了19.6%，平均房价（包括公寓在内）涨幅达到惊人的11.5%。虽然大多伦多地区的房价飙升了8.9%，但同期多伦多的工资涨幅仅有2.3%。哪怕是数学菜鸟也能一眼看出房价高得令人难以负担。

But it seems that Toronto seems to veer sharply off from the CMHC’s outlook in Ontario. The latest report from the indicated sales volume in Toronto jumps of 19.6%, with the average cost to buy a home (condo’s included) up by a startling 11.5%, and in GTA, the prices have spiked by 8.9%, while at the same time, wage growth in Toronto remains as low as 2.3%. It doesn’t take a math whiz to quickly realize there’s a disproportion in home prices to affordability.

多伦多楼市似乎已经明显过热，这一现象甚至吸引了美国媒体的关注。据《泰晤士报》报道，目前加拿大在建的公寓数量达到55,000套，是人口增长对住房需求的三倍。因此我们的美国邻居以及许多多伦多人感到困惑的原因一目了然。显然，参加CMHC记者会的许多记者最担心的还是可能发生的楼市衰退。

It seems that significant overheating is taking place in the Toronto market, and it has even drawn attention from our American counterparts. According to the Times, there are 55,000 condo units under construction in Canada, three times what population growth requires. It’s easy to see why our neighbors to the south are confused—so are many Torontonians. Apparently, much of the reporters in the room were primarily concerned with fears of a looming housing downturn.

但是CMHC向安省居民保证，证明楼市存在泡沫的前提特征并不存在。据汉斯称，楼市只是出现的价格上涨、过度建设和过热仅为轻微现象。CMHC称，对市场的担忧是源于媒体的大肆报道，并没有多少事实依据。

But the CMHC reassured Ontarians that the necessary symptoms required for a bubble aren’t there. According to Heese, there has been minimal Price acceleration, overbuilding, and overheating. The fears being caused in the market, as the CMHC claims, are caused by dramatic media reports and have little factual basis.

但是，我所知的轶事证据与CMHC的展望并不相符。我经常听到我的父母谈论有关那些富有的中国移民在定居加国后，买房作为投资。我家的另一个朋友, 一个在中国建筑公司工作的单身母亲最近就在皮克灵购买了一栋价格超过$120万元的新屋，其中只有10%是保费，其余$100多万都是按揭贷款！

Yet, all of my anecdotal evidence is not calibrated with the CMHC’s outlook. I constantly hear of my parents talking about Chinese immigrants, with large fortunes, settling in Canada and purchasing homes for investments. Another family friend – a single mother who works for a Chinese construction firm recently bought a new home in Pickering for over $1.2 million, with only 10% of premium and over a million in mortgages!

但是在有关富有移民抬高加拿大房价的故事不时见诸媒体头条之际, 这位单身母亲的故事可能只是冰山一角。据媒体报道称，当加拿大政府不再接纳中国富裕投资者时，加拿大帝国商业银行副首席经济师泰尔曾称，这会对温哥华和多伦多的楼市产生重大影响。

But her story may just a tip of an iceberg as stories where immigrants with large sum of cash jacked up the housing market in Canada have flooded the media headlines. According to media reports, when the government closed doors for wealthy Chinese investors to enter Canada, Benjamin Tal, CIBC Deputy Chief Economist stated it could have a great impact in Vancouver and Toronto housing markets.

但是在谈及移民在持续升温的楼市中所起的作用时，CMHC放弃了上述说法，称他们没有有关具体数据，而移民投资房产仅占加国房市的一小部分。

But when pressed for the role that immigration plays in spiking up the housing market, CMHC played it off, stating they didn’t have the metric and that it was only a small part of the market.

汉斯称：“我们仅仅是通过你们谈及的轶事才对这一问题有所耳闻，我希望我有更多的数据，但我没有。”

“The only time we hear of this is when you guys bring this up through anecdotal evidence,” says Heese. “I wish I had more data, but I don’t.”

这个答案显然令我不满。我相信与我同样持此不满之感的还有许多安省居民。其中最主要的原因就是许多所谓的监督部门和监测房价的机构所发布的报告相互矛盾，他们无法就市场态势达成一致，从而持续引发普遍的对房市产生的困惑之感。

That answer definitely troubles me. And what troubles me, along with many Ontarians, the most is that many so called watchdogs and agencies that monitor housing prices bring conflicting reports and they can’t agree themselves on what’s happening in the market, which has continued to cause widespread confusion in the market.

但是，在参加过CMHC的记者会后，该机构缺乏数据和有效的度量指标让我感到他们也是在对房市进行猜测，看来CMHC的观点也并没有太多科学依据。

However, after sitting through the CMHC’s press conference, the agency’s lack of data and available metrics left a lingering taste that they were speculating as well – their conclusion seems to have with little scientific basis.

楼市到底有没有泡沫？谁也不知道。

Is there a housing bubble? Your guess is as good as mine.