消除安省赤字，安省必须把德拉蒙德报告当回事

安省保守党政府日前公布财政预算后，安省的各个教师工会立即发起一场宣传运动，“指控”该预算会让安省的教育质量下降，并号召人们密切关注安省教育改革。他们的宣传专注于每个班级学生人数的增加，声称这会对学生的成绩产生不利影响。

After the recent budget announcements, the Teachers Unions in Ontario launched a campaign to bring attention to their “alleged” degradation of the educational system. They focused on the increase in class sizes claiming this to be detrimental to the students' academic achievements.


 
关于班级的学生规模，自由党的支持者只字不提2011年由自由党省长麦坚迪委托经济学家德拉蒙德就安省财政赤字所做的分析报告。该报告所做的建议之一是增加每班学生人数。但该建议没有被安省自由党政府采纳。因为要想连任，他们要安抚各教师工会。

When it comes to class size increases, Liberal party supporters will conveniently forget the 2012 Drummond Report that was commissioned by then Premier Dalton McGuinty in 2011. One of the items in this report recommended an increase in class sizes but was ignored by the Liberal Provincial Government for the sake of political expediency in order to appease the Teachers Unions.

由经济学家德拉蒙德和一个四人组成的委员会就如何消减安省财政赤字的报告于2012年2月15日出台。它旨在向省政府提供有关如何降低安省债务水平的建议。当时安省的财政赤字是加拿大所有省份中最高的一个。安省2012年累积的债务为2400亿元，而自由党于2004年上台时的数字才1390亿元。

The deficit-reduction report written by economist Don Drummond and a four-person commission was released on February 15, 2012. It was intended to advise the government of Ontario on how to reduce the province's debt levels - the highest for any province in Canada. The accumulated debt in 2012 was $240 Billion, up from $139 Billion when the Liberals took power in 2004.



这个被称之为德拉蒙德报告呼吁安省政府在2017到2018的财政年之前大幅削减开支，确保收支平衡。该报告分上下两卷，长达665页。报告给当初的自由党政府提了362项改革建议。但许多消减财政赤字的建议从未被自由党采纳。当安省自由党在2018年被选民赶下台时，安省总债务从1390亿元膨胀到3250亿元。

Drummond’s report called for extensive spending reductions to balance the books by 2017-18 and outlined 362 recommendations in the 665-page, two-volume report. Many of the recommendations on cuts were never adopted by the ruling Liberals. When the Ontario liberals were turfed by the voters in 2018, the total debt reached $325 Billion from $139 Billion.

让我们来看看德拉蒙德报告是如何建议每班学生人数的。

Let us examine what the Drummond Reports said about class sizes.



当初，为提高学生成绩，安省的基本策略之一是减少每班的学生人数（从幼儿园到3年级）。政府花了很多钱来降低每班的学生人数。

One of Ontario’s fundamental strategies to support improvements in student achievement has been to reduce primary class sizes (kindergarten to Grade 3). Capital investments were made to allow schools to accommodate smaller class sizes.

2008年，自由党省政府与各教师工会的劳资协议包括在2009-10至2012-13期间拨款，将4至8年级的平均每班人数减少0.5名学生。在中学阶段，作为“提高学生成绩策略”的一部分，教师备课时间，聘请额外教师也造成了教育成本的增加。

The 2008 provincial labour framework agreements included funding to decrease average class sizes in Grade 4 through Grade 8 by 0.5 student between 2009–10 and 2012–13. At the secondary level, increases for teacher preparation time and additional teachers as part of the Student Success Strategy have also resulted in increased resources.



自2003年以来，安省自由党政府一直认为较小的班级规模会让师生互动产生更好的教学效果。但问题是什么才是“小班”，小班如何、为什么和在什么条件下能提高学习成绩就没有下文了。CD Howe政策研究所的研究指出：“没有确凿证据证明小班教学可以提高加拿大小学和中学的学生成绩。”其他国际研究表明，小班教学并不是教育成果的关键因素。单凭减小班级学生人数不会提高学生成绩。

Since 2003, the government has maintained that smaller classes yield better results through greater teacher-student interaction but questions of “what size class is ‘small enough,’ how and why reducing class size works, and under what conditions it works, are all under-explained.” Research by the C.D. Howe Institute suggests that “no solid evidence exists to show that smaller classes improve student achievement in the later primary and secondary grades in Canada.” Other international studies suggest that small class sizes are not a key determinant of educational outcomes, and certainly small class sizes alone are an insufficient measure to achieve these outcomes.

其他证据表明，就物有所值而言，花钱来减小班级规模并不能带来最大的回报，而提高教师质量是改善学生成绩的更有效途径。同样，C.D Howe政策研究所指出，如果把花在减少班级规模上的钱用在教育系统的其他领域，可能更能提高学生成绩。

Further evidence suggests that, in terms of value for money, investments in lower class sizes do not provide the greatest possible benefit. Raising teacher quality is a more effective route to improved student outcomes than creating smaller classes. Similarly, the C.D. Howe Institute notes that resources devoted to class-size reduction could have a greater impact if reallocated elsewhere in the education system.


 
为此德拉蒙德报告提出以下建议：

The Drummond Commission recommended the following:

将小学一年级班级学生人数设定为23，取消90％的班级必须达到20个学生或更少的政策。中学每班人数从目前的22名学生增至24名。到2017  -  18，这项措施会消减大约5,900个教师职位，也就是全省教职员工的4.8％，这意味着教职员工在六年的平均年度流失为0.8％。

Set the cap in class size for primary grades at 23 and eliminate the other requirement that 90 per cent of classes must be at 20 or fewer, and secondary class sizes from 22 to 24. The recommended increase in class sizes will lead to approximately 5,900 or 4.8 per cent fewer teaching positions by 2017–18, representing an average annual attrition rate over the next six years of 0.8 per cent among teaching staff.

现在让我们看看福特保守党政府最近公布的政策：

Now let us look at the recent changes announced by the Ford Conservative Government:

幼儿园到3年级的每班人数没有变化。 4至8年级的学生每班人数从23增加到24，高中（9至12年级）的每班学生人数从22增加到28名。这一改革将通过逐渐减员措施来消减7,000个教学职位。

There are no changes to primary class sizes (kindergarten to Grade 3). The average class sizes would increase by one student in Grades 4 to 8 (23 to 24), and from 22 to 28 students in high school (Grade 9 to 12) – changes that would lead to the loss of about 7,000 teaching positions through attrition.


 
除了高中每班学生的增加（24变成28）之外，今天安省的教育改革与2012年德拉蒙德报告建议相差不远。我们能将数百名大学一年级学生放在一起上大课，让高中生早点熟悉上大课可能会帮助他们更快地融入大选学习生活。

If we look at today's educational changes and match that with the commissioned Drummond Report in 2012, they are not that different save for the high school class size increases (24 now becomes 28). For first year university students, we put hundreds into lecture halls so getting the high school student ready for that reality may actual help them to adjust later at universities.

如果德拉蒙德报告所开的一副苦药在2012年就吃下去，逐步改变每班学生的人数，我们今天就不会背巨大的债务。我们也会慢慢适应这一改革。

If the medicine prescribed by the Drummond Commission was taken back in 2012 and progressive changes to class sizes are made, we will not be saddled with the huge provincial debt today. We would also have adjusted to the gradual changes over the years.

德拉蒙德报告中的建议一直被当作耳旁风，现在可能是开始把该报告当回事，并把报告的建议稍加修改，付诸实施，从而控制安省的预算赤字的时候了。

The words from the Drummond Reports fell on deaf ears at one time, may be now is the time to start listening and working with a slightly modified version of it to control our budget deficits.