社论转载：不要对TPP报太大期望，也不必担心其影响

 

 

 

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade and investment agreement reached by 12 countries on Monday morning looks like a good deal – good， and not quite as big as promised. Both the positives and negatives in the deal appear to be smaller than hoped， or feared.

周一，由12个国家达成的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定看上去是一笔好生意。这的确是件好事，但决不象有人承诺那么迷人。这个协定，好也罢，坏也罢，既不是你想象的那么好，也不是你想象的那么糟。

 

The broad strokes of the deal are known， though the precise details won’t be out for a few days. The TPP will open closed sectors of the Canadian economy， such as dairy， poultry and eggs – but by less than expected. In pharmaceutical patents， an area of concern to Canadians， the TPP’s changes to the status quo also appear to be smaller than advertised. And while the agreement， which includes Japan and the United States (but not China)， is being sold as the biggest trade deal ever， it is not as revolutionary as all that.

 虽然这一协定的细节要过几天才能知道，但此协定的主要条款已经为大众所知。该协定让加拿大的某些行业，如奶制品，家禽和禽蛋打开大门，但并没有像人们期望地完全打开市场。对于加拿大人关注的药物专利，该协定对现有规则的改变，不像所宣传的有大动作。虽然政府想让我们以为这个包括日本和美国(中国不在其中)是有史以来最大的贸易协定。但该协定决不是个创举。

Thanks to three decades of trade liberalization， from the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement to NAFTA to the World Trade Organization， Canada’s trade is already largely free. The remaining old-style tariff barriers are few and generally low. The TPP is mostly about taking one more step down that path.

从加拿大美国自由贸易协定，到北美贸易协定和国际贸易组织协定，我们感谢过去30年来在贸易上的松绑，并且让加拿大几乎是给自由贸易国家。加拿大那些老得发霉的关税壁垒已经没有几个，而且税率也很低。跨太平洋伙伴关系协定只是在消灭关税壁垒方面又往前走了一步。 

As citizens of one of the world’s most trade-dependent countries， Canadians need to be part of major trade and investment agreements for two reasons: fear and opportunity.

作为世界上最靠贸易过日子的国家之一，加拿大之所以要参与主要贸易和投资协定的理由有两个：担忧和机遇。

 

The fear is of being left out of deals done by our trading partners， which would put Canadian exporters at a disadvantage. The opportunity is to deliver benefits to Canadian companies and consumers， by making it easier for the former to export， while pushing down the price of imports for the latter. That benefit of free trade – introducing competition for domestic businesses makes things cheaper for consumers – is hardly ever talked about. But it’s the most important reason. A trade deal should be judged partly on what it does for Canadian business， but above all on what it does for millions of Canadian consumers.

担忧是因为如果不加入那些与加拿大做贸易的伙伴们所制定的协定，那将对加拿大的出口不利。机遇是，加入协定会让加拿大的公司更容易出口产品和服务，同时将进口价格降低，这对加拿大的公司和消费者有利。自由贸易的好处在哪？那就是通过引进竞争，迫使加拿大国内企业制造出更便宜的消费产品。这是一个很少谈及的话题，但它却是自由贸易存在的真正原因。一个自由贸易协定是好是坏，部分要看加拿大的企业是否能赚更多钱，但最根本的是要看它能否给加拿大千百万的消费者带来好处。

 

Which brings us to the part of the TPP that will get a lot of play in the last two weeks of the election: the small opening of Canada’s system of supply management for dairy， egg and chicken. At one point there was a fear – for farmers， it was a fear; for consumers， a hope – that supply management would be blown up and replaced by free trade. That’s not what’s happening. Instead， other TPP countries will get duty-free access to just 3.25 per cent of Canada’s dairy market and 2.1 per cent of its poultry market. The rest of the long-closed market apparently remains protected.

这就是为什么在过去两周内这一协定成了大选中的一个话题：即是否让加拿大的奶制品、禽蛋和鸡的供应管理系统敞开一点大门。农场主们对敞开一点大门很担心，但它却给消费者带来了降价的期望。农场主们担心自由贸易会彻底摧毁目前的供应管理系统。但这是杞人忧天。因为跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的合作国家只能向加拿大免税出口占加拿大市场不超过3.25%的奶制品，不超过2.1%的家禽。显然，加拿大这几个历来关闭的市场还是被保护了。

 

Canada’s concession on this point will be treated as a “cost，” and something Canada “gave up” in return for benefits. And if you are an egg or dairy farmer， yes， a slightly less protected Canadian market will impose costs on you. (That’s why Ottawa is promising $4.3-billion in support for affected farmers over the next 15 years.) But for millions of consumers， any opening of the Canadian market， and any reduction in supply management， means lower prices. It’s a gain， not a loss. The TPP appears to involve a limited cost for a small number of farmers， and a small benefit for millions of Canadian consumers. We’d call that a net positive.

加拿大在这方面所做的让步是加拿大加入协定的“成本”，也就是加拿大有所得就一定有所“失”。如果你是加拿大的奶制品农场主，一个小小的市场让步会让你蒙受损失（这就是为什么渥太华会在未来15年当中给农场主43亿的补贴。），但这对上千万的加拿大消费者来说，将市场放开，减少供应管理的干涉，意味着他们将享受更低的价格。这是赢，不是亏。跨太平洋伙伴关系协定显然降低了一小部分农场主的损失，同时给加拿大的消费者带来一点好处。我们称其利大于弊。

 

On pharmaceuticals， in contrast， there may be benefits for the world’s major drug manufacturers， in the form of longer patent protection periods. This was opposed by Canada，and by such countries as Australia and New Zealand. Longer patent protection periods drive up drug prices， a huge concern for publicly funded health care systems. A last-minute compromise on drugs was reached – and the result here may be the mirror image of the deal on supply management. Some patent protection periods have been extended， but not by as much as feared. The precise language remains to be revealed， but if the pharma part of the TPP contains negatives for Canadians， these appear to be small.

在药物问题上，跨太平洋伙伴关系协定可能对世界上的几大制药公司有利，因为它延长了专利的有效期。澳大利亚，新西兰，加拿大等国都反对这个条款，担心延长专利的有效期会增加公费医疗系统的成本。但是，在最后一分钟，通过妥协，大家在药物条款上达成协定，其模式与加拿大的奶制品等供应管理系统差不多。虽然有些专利的有效期延长了，但不是人们先前担心的那样。目前具体的药物条款还没有公布，然而可以肯定的是，跨太平洋伙伴关系协定在药物上对加拿大人的影响很小。

 

The deal also further opens up the Canadian car market， with a 6.1 per cent Canadian tariff on imported vehicles to be phased out over five years. As well， the minimum amount of domestic content that must be included in a car will be reduced from the 60 per cent limit under NAFTA.

跨太平洋伙伴关系协定也将进一步开放加拿大的汽车市场。加拿大6.1%的汽车进口税将在未来5年内废除。按照北美自由贸易协定规定，加拿大市场销售的汽车的国内生产部件也将减到60%。

 

编注：以上是加拿大全国发行的最大日报——《环球邮报》2015年10月5日发表的社论。大中报贾宁扬编译。

Note: The Editorial was published by The Globe and Mail on October 5, 2015. Translated by Jack Jia, Chinese News.