万锦市选之我见
Bob Mok
万锦市选已经落下帷幕，现在是时候反思我的分析，和从中总结经验教训。
Now that the Markham Municipal elections are over, it is time to reflect on my analyses and lessons learned from it.
我将按照以下分类对万锦市选结果进行回顾和评论：
I will go through and comment on the Markham Municipal election results by category below:
1）市长选举——正如预测的那样，Scarpitti市长虽然在此次选举中获得连任，但却被挑战者Stephen Kotyck夺走很多选票。此外，由于失去了他的“多数派”成员Howard Shore和Carolina Moretti，其推动自身议程的能力也将被削弱。对于Scarpitti来说，接下来的四年会非常艰难。而这将给予他更多诱因与动机，促使他在短期内竞选区议会主席。
1)Mayoral race – Mayor Scarpitti kept his job but lost quite some votes to his challenger Stephen Kotyck as predicted. Along with a loss of his “majority” group players Howard Shore and Carolina Moretti, his ability to push his agendas will be diminished. It will be a very tough four years for Frank Scarpitti. This should give him more incentives and motivations to go after the York Regional Chair when it becomes available shortly.
2）区域议员——Peter Pavlovic在此次竞选中落败并不出人意料。Nirmala Armstrong当选符合预期，其他结果虽然在意料之中但也让人有点小意外。我低估了“明星效应”和“传统投票”这两个因素的影响。华裔女性候选人的得票均超过预期，这表明她们在全体候选人集会和竞选活动中充分展现了参与热情和沟通技能。许多人都怀疑她们的得票可能都是“传统投票”，下面我将进一步阐述“明星效应”。
2)Regional Councillors - No surprises here as Peter Pavlovic did not manage to get elected. Nirmala Armstrong was elected as projected and the other results are as expected with minor surprises. I underestimated the effects from two factors – “Star Power” and “Heritage Votes”. The votes collected by the Chinese female candidates were more than expected and it is indicative of their demonstrated involvements and communication skills throughout the All-candidate meetings and the election campaign. Many people suspected that they may be simply collecting “Heritage Votes”.I will elaborate on “Star Power” votes further down.
3）第一选区——Valerie Burke在这个选区获胜。她成功说服老的第二选区的居民，令他们相信她会比另一名现任者更出色。
3)Ward#1 – Valerie Burke won big in this ward. She managed to convince residents from the old ward 2 that she can do a better job than their other incumbent.
4）第二选区——在该选区获胜的Alan Ho得票虽然少于上一次竞选（7463 Vs 7668），但仍然远远超过此前竞选的得票（超出1000票）。这些增加的选票可能是来自在上次竞选中支持Khalid Usman的选民，他此次参选第七选区的市议员。
4)Ward#2 – Alan Ho won with a larger margin than the previous election (1000 votes more) with even less ballots than last election (7463 Vs 7668). This pick up is likely from Khalid Usman’s voters last time, he ran in Ward 7 this time.
5）第三选区——Don Hamilton以领先6000票的优势傲视群雄是无可厚非的意料中事。由于他的支持率高达74%，即便其他五位候选人的得票全部加在一起也不可能战胜他。该选区得票第二高的候选人只得到604票。
5)Ward#3 – No surprises and no contest here as Don Hamilton cleaned it all up with over 6000 votes. At 74% popularity, he can win even if the other 5 candidates combined all their votes. The next highest vote count was 604.
6）第四选区——除了第一选区出现两名现任市议员在同一选区竞逐的独特现象，Karen Rea是唯一一个战胜现任市议员的候选人。这是一个巨大的胜利，她将有助于推动市议会预期的变革。这也证明她在竞选中的辛劳和努力终于得到回报。
6)Ward#4 – Karen Rea is the only candidate to unseat an incumbent except ward 1 which has its own unique situation with 2 incumbents. This was a solid win and she will contribute to the changes expected in Council. This proves that hard work and diligence really paid off in an election.
7）第五选区——现任市议员赢得连任，许多人认为这是因为当局在最后时刻宣布了由市长推动的清真寺新选址提议。这也证明在适当时机演变为竞选议题的事件会影响投票结果。
7)Ward#5 – The incumbent won his seat and many believed that was due to an eleventh hour announcement on a proposed alternate to the Mosque site driven by the Mayor. This proves that voting results can be affected by events staged at the right time when it becomes an election issue.
8）第六选区——努力付出的Amanda Yeung Collucci在这个新选区赢得胜利，但在最后时刻加入该选区竞选的一名“空降”候选人亦令她心惊。Benson Lau医生就是展现“专业效应”的典型例子。虽然他从未涉足万锦市的政治，并且直到竞选的最后几个月都还不是万锦市的居民，但他的得票却只比当选者少241票。当选民不熟悉候选人时，他们显然更乐于选择有良好职业和公民法官记录的候选人。
8)Ward#6 – Amanda Yeung Collucci won this new ward with her diligence but she got a scare out of a “parachute” candidate who droppedinto the ward at the last moments. Doctor Benson Lau is an example of “Profession Power”. Armed with no political involvement in Markham and as a non-resident until the last few months of the election, Dr. Lau came within 241 votes of capturing that seat. When voters are not familiar with the candidates, they apparently felt comfortable with one who has a good profession and a record as a Citizenship judge.
9）第七选区——该选区选举结果一如预期，即便现任市议员（Logan Kanapathi）因为在近期有意竞逐联邦选举候选人资格而饱受批评。此外，同样是受到清真寺新选址公告的提振，导致Kahlid Usman无法战胜现任者。
9)Ward#7 – The result was as predicted even though the incumbent (Logan Kanapathi) endured criticisms of his intentions to run for a Federal election Candidacy race in the near future. Also boosted by the Mosque location change announcement, Kahlid Usman cannot overcome the incumbent.
10）第八选区——“明星效应”和“传统投票”差点战胜已经任职29年的现任市议员。虽然Alex Chiu赢得连任，但他的总得票大幅下降，仅比Isa Lee多132票。
10)Ward#8 – “Star power” and “Heritage Votes” almost overcome a 29 year incumbent. A minuscule 132 votes prevented Isa Lee from unseating incumbent Alex Chiu who has seen his votes total dropped dramatically.
在此次选举中，总投票数仅为72620票（包括网上投票），只占到合格选民的37.1%。这一数字远远低于当地媒体和其他努力提高此次选举的公民参与度的人士力争的 50%的投票率目标。
Only 72620 ballots (including those who voted on-line) were filled, representing 37.1% of all eligible voters. This figure is way less than the 50% target aimed by a local media and others to increase citizen participation in this municipal election.
不知出于何种原因，人们并不想参与投票。这可能涉及很多原因，包括在准备选民名单时遗漏合格选民；网上投票程序非常复杂；或是对选举漠不关心，认为投票不足以推翻现任者或是改变管理机构。但是我可以和读者分享一些新闻，其中之一是安省剑桥市的一名现任市议员在此次选举中只以2票之差落败。
For whatever reason, people do not want to be bothered with coming out and vote. It could be combination of a number of things – omission of eligible voters when preparing voters lists, a complicated Internet voting process, or apathy and resignation that the votes will not count to unseat incumbents or effect changes in the governing body. Let me share some news with the readers – one incumbent councillor in the City of Cambridge, Ontario lost his seat by only 2 votes in this election!
总之，这次选举让我认识到“明星效应”和“专业效应”都是巨大的选民磁铁。这两者再加上“传统投票”，就足以将一个候选人的得票推高到出人意料的高度。
In conclusion, I learned that “Star Power” and “Profession Power” are both great voter magnets. These, when combined with “Heritage Votes” can push a candidates’ vote count into heights unexpected.
候选人的社区参与、政治立场、代表团体和参与委员会会议的热情影响选民选择的日子已经一去不复返。至少，万锦市的某些选区已经让我们深有体会，此次选举已经证明了这一点。
Gone are the days when a candidate’s community involvements, political stances, deputations, and Council meeting participations played a role in the voter’s selections. At least, that is what we have experienced in certain enclaves located in Markham, as demonstrated by this election.