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最新调查:2020年加元将会疲软





根据路透社的最新调查显示,加元是去年表现最出色的G10成员国货币之一。但随着加拿大国内经济疲软,以及近期贸易紧张局势缓解,今年这一情况将会发生转变。

2019年,全球经济复苏迹象的出现以及美国和中国达成临时贸易协议,令加元兑美元汇率上涨了5%,其中约有一半是在去年最后几个星期上涨的。

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加拿大是石油和其他商品的主要出口国,因此经济比美国等国家更加依赖贸易。Desjardins的高级经济学家Hendrix Vachon说,“到2019年底,风险下降了,这有助于加元和其他几种货币。我们预计2020年风险不会再次大幅度降低。我们倾向于短期内货币平稳。”

路透社调查了超过40位货币分析师,他们预计加元兑美元在三个月内将从周四的$1.30下跌0.5%,达到$1.31加元兑1美元。预计一年后将升至1.30,与12月份一致。

近期数据显示,加拿大国内经济增速放缓,可能为降息敞开大门。去年,美联储和欧洲央行都实施了宽松政策,但加拿大央行将基准利率维持在了1.75%的水平。最近几周的数据显示,加拿大的经济在10月萎缩了0.1%,在11月减少了7万多个工作岗位。12月的就业报告预计会在本周五提交。

一些经济学家预计,加拿大第四季度的年增长率将低于1%。10月份,加拿大银行曾预计第四季度增长1.3%。

皇家银行资本市场首席策略师George Davis表示:“我们认为,出口和商业投资受到限制将导致增长放缓,并为第二季度降低央行利率奠定了基础。”

路透社11月的一项民意调查显示,加拿大五大主要银行中有四家预期,央行将在2020年底之前至少降息一次。货币市场在同一时期大约有50%的可能性实施宽松政策。




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